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Tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood.
V Radosavljevic1, G Belojevic2, N Pavlovic3
1Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade, Serbia.
Public Health
|April 14, 2017
Summary
A new tool using precipitation, river discharge, river level, and weather forecasts can predict rapid river floods. This simple flood evacuation tool could have saved lives in past events.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology
- Disaster Management
- Meteorology
Background:
- Rapid river floods pose significant threats to life and property.
- Effective decision-making tools for timely evacuation are crucial during flood events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a simple and effective tool for general evacuation decisions during rapid river floods.
- To validate the tool's efficacy through virtual testing in a real flood event.
Main Methods:
- A four-component tool was developed, incorporating precipitation, upstream river discharge, upstream river level, and short-term hydrometeorological forecasts.
- The tool was virtually applied to a catastrophic river flood event in Obrenovac, Serbia (May 2014).
Main Results:
- The tool indicated a need for general evacuation one day prior to the Obrenovac flood, suggesting lives could have been saved.
- Analysis of two previous major floods in Serbia showed the tool's evacuation score was met either one day before or at the onset of the flood.
Conclusions:
- The proposed tool is simple, universally applicable, and aids decision-making for rapid river flood evacuations.
- Further testing of this tool in future flood catastrophes is recommended.