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Human mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens
Alberto Aleta1, Andreia N S Hisi2, Sandro Meloni3
1Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems , University of Zaragoza , Zaragoza, Spain.
Royal Society Open Science
|April 14, 2017
Summary
Host mobility significantly impacts the persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens, influencing disease spread dynamics. Intermediate mobility levels are crucial for pathogen endurance and epidemic wave emergence.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Disease Ecology
Background:
- Rapidly mutating pathogens can evade host immunity, leading to endemic disease.
- Outbreak dynamics are influenced by pathogen traits, seasonality, and host population structure.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of host mobility and spatial fragmentation on pathogen persistence.
- To map the dynamical regimes of rapidly mutating pathogens in a metapopulation model.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model on a metapopulation network.
- Conducted extensive numerical simulations to explore pathogen persistence and spread.
Main Results:
- Spatial fragmentation and host mobility critically affect disease persistence.
- Maximum pathogen persistence occurs at intermediate mobility values.
- Observed phenomena include local extinction and epidemic wave emergence.
Conclusions:
- Host mobility is a key factor in the ecological dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens.
- Findings provide insights into disease spread in heterogeneous environments.
- Opens avenues for further research on pathogen ecology and host-pathogen interactions.