Predictive Factors for Second-Line Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Retrospective Analysis

Currently, about 50% of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) receive a second-line therapy. Therefore, the choice at each subsequent treatment line remains an important issue. In this retrospective study, we sought to identify pretreatment clinical parameters that could predict the likelihood of a patient receiving a second-line therapy. One hundred and sixty-one mRCC patients who received targeted therapy were evaluated. Descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS), Cox regression, and binary logistic regression models were used for data analysis. Second-line therapy was given to 105 patients (65%). Patients with grade 1 tumor received second-line therapy more frequently than those with grade 2/3 tumors (P = 0.03). Only tumor grade was significantly different between patients receiving, or not receiving, second-line treatment. Median OS was significantly superior in patients receiving second-line therapy (32 versus 14 months; P = 0.007; hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; P = 0.008), patients with grade 1 tumors (130 versus 29 months in G2/3 tumors; HR, 3.85; P = 0.009), and in patients without early tumor progression (41 versus 11 months; HR, 5.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.06-8.31; P < 0.001). In binary logistic regression, we identified early progression to be significantly associated with a higher probability of not receiving a second-line therapy (HR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.01-6.21; P = 0.048). This study hypothesizes that pretreatment grade and early progression are predictive parameters for the selection of patients for second-line therapy.