Prediction suppression and surprise enhancement in monkey inferotemporal cortex

Exposing monkeys, over the course of days and weeks, to pairs of images presented in fixed sequence, so that each leading image becomes a predictor for the corresponding trailing image, affects neuronal visual responsiveness in area TE. At the end of the training period, neurons respond relatively weakly to a trailing image when it appears in a trained sequence and, thus, confirms prediction, whereas they respond relatively strongly to the same image when it appears in an untrained sequence and, thus, violates prediction. This effect could arise from prediction suppression (reduced firing in response to the occurrence of a probable event) or surprise enhancement (elevated firing in response to the omission of a probable event). To identify its cause, we compared firing under the prediction-confirming and prediction-violating conditions to firing under a prediction-neutral condition. The results provide strong evidence for prediction suppression and limited evidence for surprise enhancement.NEW & NOTEWORTHY In predictive coding models of the visual system, neurons carry signed prediction error signals. We show here that monkey inferotemporal neurons exhibit prediction-modulated firing, as posited by these models, but that the signal is unsigned. The response to a prediction-confirming image is suppressed, and the response to a prediction-violating image may be enhanced. These results are better explained by a model in which the visual system emphasizes unpredicted events than by a predictive coding model.