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A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
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Seasonal variation in multiple sclerosis relapse.

Katharine Harding1,2,3, Kate Tilling4, Claire MacIver1,3

  • 1Institute of Psychological Medicine and Clinical Neuroscience, Cardiff University, University Hospital of Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XW, UK.

Journal of Neurology
|April 21, 2017
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Summary

Multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses show seasonal variation, influenced by sunshine hours and more frequent in younger patients. These findings may help modify MS relapse risk and outcomes.

Keywords:
EpidemiologyMultiple sclerosisRelapsesSeasonal

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Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Epidemiology
  • Environmental Health

Background:

  • Relapses are a key feature of multiple sclerosis (MS).
  • Factors influencing MS relapse frequency are not fully understood.
  • Seasonal variations in MS relapses may be linked to environmental factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate seasonal variations in MS relapse rates.
  • To correlate relapse patterns with patient demographics and climatic factors.
  • To identify potential modifiable factors influencing MS relapse risk.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective data collection from 2076 MS patients (2005-2014).
  • Analysis of 3902 recorded relapse events.
  • Statistical correlation with age, sex, disease course, and monthly sunshine hours.

Main Results:

  • Significant seasonal variation in MS relapse rates (p < 0.0001).
  • Increased relapse rates associated with fewer monthly sunshine hours (OR 1.08, p = 0.02).
  • Relapse rates were highest in patients under 30 (OR 1.42, p = 0.0005) and decreased with age.

Conclusions:

  • Seasonal patterns and sunshine hours are significant factors in MS relapse rates.
  • Younger age is associated with a higher risk of MS relapse.
  • Identifying modifiable environmental factors could alter MS relapse risk and improve outcomes.