Medicaid Expansion and ACA Repeal: Evidence From Ohio

To examine the health insurance coverage options for Medicaid expansion enrollees if the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is repealed, using evidence from Ohio, where more than half a million adults have enrolled in the state's Medicaid program through the ACA expansion.

The Ohio Medicaid Assessment Survey interviewed 42 000 households in 2015. We report data from a unique battery of questions designed to identify insurance coverage immediately prior to Medicaid enrollment.

Ninety-five percent of new Medicaid enrollees in Ohio did not have a private health insurance option immediately before enrollment. These new enrollees are predominantly older, low-income Whites with a high school education or less. Only 5% of new Medicaid enrollees were eligible for an employer-sponsored insurance plan to which they could potentially return in the case of repeal of the ACA.

The vast majority of Medicaid expansion enrollees would have no plausible pathway to obtaining private-sector insurance if the ACA were repealed. Demographic similarities between the expansion population and 2016 exit polls suggest that coverage losses would fall disproportionately on members of the winning Republican coalition.