Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Oceanography
• Hydrology

Background:

• Global warming alters precipitation and the water cycle, impacting terrestrial water storage (TWS).
• Changes in TWS influence global sea level variations.
• Natural TWS variability can obscure long-term sea level rise trends and complicate detection and attribution.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to decadal sea level variability.
• To improve the detection and attribution of anthropogenic sea level rise.
• To understand TWS impacts on future flooding and drought.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a suite of observational data.
• Quantified TWS variability's contribution to sea level variability on decadal timescales.
• Mapped the spatial relationship between TWS and sea level changes.

Main Results:

• Decadal sea level variability, particularly in the Pacific Ocean, is strongly linked to low-frequency TWS variability globally.
• Identified key global regions where TWS variability significantly influences sea level.
• Established a method to separate TWS-induced sea level variability from other trends.

Conclusions:

• Separating TWS variability is crucial for accurately detecting and attributing anthropogenic sea level rise.
• Understanding TWS-driven sea level fluctuations is essential for predicting future climate change impacts.
• This research provides a pathway to better understand climate-driven sea level changes and their consequences.