Three-Stage Decision-Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control.

Area of Science:

• Maritime Safety
• Naval Architecture
• Risk Management

Background:

• Ships not under control (NUC) present significant risks in confined, near-shore waters, especially in inland waterway transportation.
• Emergency response to NUC incidents is complicated by time limitations, resource constraints, and information asymmetry.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a robust, three-stage decision-making framework for effective NUC ship handling.
• To enhance the emergency response capabilities for NUC incidents in inland waterways.

Main Methods:

• Stage 1: Proposing feasible risk control options for all involved entities (maritime safety administration, NUC ship, passing vessels) under resource constraints.
• Stage 2: Selecting the most feasible options by comparing new incident cases with existing ones using similarity measures.
• Stage 3: Utilizing a developed Bayesian network to facilitate cooperative decision-making among involved organizations.

Main Results:

• The framework enables the identification of viable risk control strategies tailored to specific NUC scenarios.
• The Bayesian network model effectively integrates cooperative decision-making, improving response coordination.
• The study provides a structured approach to managing NUC ship incidents, enhancing overall maritime safety.

Conclusions:

• The proposed three-stage framework offers a practical tool for well-organized management of NUC ships.
• This decision-making model is crucial for improving safety and efficiency in inland waterway transportation during emergencies.
• Effective management of NUC incidents requires a systematic approach that considers resource constraints and inter-organizational cooperation.