Most Likely to Succeed: Long-Run Returns to Adolescent Popularity

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Economics
• Psychology

Background:

• Sociological theories often link economic success to social institutions (e.g., race, gender) or education.
• Existing research overlooks the role of peer-assessed social skills in long-term economic outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the long-term association between high school popularity and adult income.
• To determine if popularity represents a distinct social skill influencing economic success.

Main Methods:

• Utilized rich longitudinal data tracking individuals over time.
• Analyzed the relationship between high school friendship nominations and adult income.
• Controlled for personal, family, and work-related characteristics.

Main Results:

• A clear and persistent association was found between high school popularity and adult income.
• This association remained significant even after accounting for mediating factors.
• The popularity-income link was distinct from conventional personality measures (e.g., Big Five).

Conclusions:

• High school popularity is a significant predictor of long-term economic success.
• Popularity may reflect a socioemotional skill related to being a good friend, not just social status.
• This socioemotional skill has lasting implications for adult income.