Predicting chemical degradation during storage from two successive concentration ratios: Theoretical investigation

When a vitamin's, pigment's or other food component's chemical degradation follows a known fixed order kinetics, and its rate constant's temperature-dependence follows a two parameter model, then, at least theoretically, it is possible to extract these two parameters from two successive experimental concentration ratios determined during the food's non-isothermal storage. This requires numerical solution of two simultaneous equations, themselves the numerical solutions of two differential rate equations, with a program especially developed for the purpose. Once calculated, these parameters can be used to reconstruct the entire degradation curve for the particular temperature history and predict the degradation curves for other temperature histories. The concept and computation method were tested with simulated degradation under rising and/or falling oscillating temperature conditions, employing the exponential model to characterize the rate constant's temperature-dependence. In computer simulations, the method's predictions were robust against minor errors in the two concentration ratios. The program to do the calculations was posted as freeware on the Internet. The temperature profile can be entered as an algebraic expression that can include 'If' statements, or as an imported digitized time-temperature data file, to be converted into an Interpolating Function by the program. The numerical solution of the two simultaneous equations requires close initial guesses of the exponential model's parameters. Programs were devised to obtain these initial values by matching the two experimental concentration ratios with a generated degradation curve whose parameters can be varied manually with sliders on the screen. These programs too were made available as freeware on the Internet and were tested with published data on vitamin A.