Mitral annular calcification progression and the risk of atrial fibrillation: results from MESA

Wesley T O'Neal1, Jimmy T Efird2, Saman Nazarian3

  • 1Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Emory University of School of Medicine, 101 Woodruff Circle, Woodruff Memorial Building, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.

Insights

Progression of mitral annular calcium (MAC) detected by cardiac CT significantly increases atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. Follow-up MAC measurements offer crucial prognostic information for AF prediction.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Radiology
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia with significant health implications.
  • Mitral annular calcium (MAC) is a marker of cardiovascular disease.
  • The predictive value of MAC progression for incident AF is not well established.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether progression of mitral annular calcium (MAC) detected by cardiac computed tomography (CT) predicts incident atrial fibrillation (AF).

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 5683 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.
  • MAC measured by cardiac CT at baseline and follow-up.
  • AF ascertained through hospital records and Medicare claims data.
  • Cox regression analysis to assess the association between MAC progression and AF risk.

Main Results:

  • Over 8.6 years median follow-up, 533 (9.4%) incident AF cases were detected.
  • Any MAC progression was associated with a 50% increased risk for AF (HR=1.50, 95% CI=1.20-1.87), adjusted for multiple confounders.
  • No significant interactions were found between MAC progression and AF risk by age, sex, or race/ethnicity.

Conclusions:

  • Follow-up MAC measurement provides important prognostic information for AF risk.
  • MAC progression is associated with a substantively greater risk of AF compared to no progression.
  • MAC progression may indicate underlying left atrial abnormalities predisposing to AF.
Abstract

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