How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Demography
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Life expectancy has increased globally.
• Improvements in mortality rates are primarily observed at younger ages.
• The behavior of mortality at extreme ages (centenarians) remains an area of active research.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate mortality patterns in individuals aged 100 years and older.
• To determine if Scandinavian data support a mortality plateau at advanced ages.
• To assess whether the maximum human lifespan has increased over time.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of individual-level data for Swedish and Danish centenarians born between 1870 and 1901.
• Calculation of birth cohort-specific probabilities of dying.
• Determination of maximum length of life using exact ages and accounting for cohort size increases.

Main Results:

• No improvement in centenarian mortality observed in the last 30 years.
• Mortality risk appears to plateau around age 103 for men and 107 for women.
• Maximum lifespan has not increased, even after adjusting for larger cohort sizes.

Conclusions:

• Centenarian mortality is static, despite gains at younger ages.
• Extending maximum lifespan and life expectancy necessitates reducing mortality above age 100.