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Fine Particulate Matter and Total Mortality in Cancer Prevention Study Cohort Reanalysis.

James E Enstrom1

  • 1University of California, Los Angeles and Scientific Integrity Institute, Los Angeles, CA, USA.

Dose-Response : a Publication of International Hormesis Society
|May 6, 2017
PubMed
Summary

An independent analysis of the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort found no significant link between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and total mortality. These findings question the evidence supporting current air quality standards for PM2.5.

Keywords:
CPS IIPM2.5deathsepidemiologyreanalysis

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Toxicology

Background:

  • The US EPA established National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in 1997 based on its association with mortality.
  • This association has been a primary justification for significant environmental regulations.
  • An independent analysis was conducted to validate the relationship between PM2.5 and mortality in the CPS II cohort.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To independently analyze the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) data.
  • To test the validity of the established relationship between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and total mortality.
  • To re-evaluate the scientific basis for PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of CPS II questionnaire data and mortality follow-up from 1982 to 1988.
  • Utilized Cox proportional hazards regression for statistical analysis.
  • Included participants from 85 counties with PM2.5 measurements and the 50 counties from the original 1995 analysis.

Main Results:

  • The relative risk (RR) of death from all causes for a 10 µg/m³ increase in PM2.5 was not statistically significant in the analyzed CPS II cohort.
  • Adjusted RR was 1.023 (0.997-1.049) in 85 counties and 1.025 (0.990-1.061) in the original 50 counties.
  • The RR was null in both western and eastern US regions, even in areas with higher PM2.5 levels.

Conclusions:

  • No significant association between PM2.5 exposure and total mortality was detected using the best available PM2.5 data in the CPS II cohort.
  • The original 1995 analysis may have selectively used data, leading to a positive relationship finding.
  • These findings cast doubt on the epidemiologic evidence supporting the PM2.5 NAAQS and call for further independent data analysis.