Counterfactual Plausibility and Comparative Similarity

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Philosophy of Mind

Background:

• Counterfactual thinking involves imagining alternatives to reality.
• Philosopher David Lewis proposed judging counterfactual plausibility by comparing possible worlds to the actual world.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically investigate comparative similarity as a psychological strategy for evaluating counterfactual plausibility.
• To assess if similarity between episodic memories and counterfactual events influences plausibility judgments.
• To compare the influence of similarity against ease and prior simulation.

Main Methods:

• Participants evaluated the perceived plausibility of counterfactual events.
• Judgments of comparative similarity between episodic memories and counterfactual events were assessed.
• The influence of similarity was compared to ease of simulation and prior simulation.

Main Results:

• Greater perceived similarity between actual memories and counterfactual events led to higher plausibility judgments.
• Similarity, ease of imagining, and prior simulation were all significant predictors of plausibility.
• Comparative similarity best explained the variance in counterfactual plausibility ratings.

Conclusions:

• Comparative similarity is a crucial psychological factor in determining counterfactual plausibility.
• Findings support and extend David Lewis's philosophical concept of comparative similarity into a psychological construct.
• This research offers insights into how people evaluate hypothetical scenarios and their likelihood.