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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Mar 2, 2026

Design and Implementation of an fMRI Study Examining Thought Suppression in Young Women with, and At-risk, for Depression
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Upward counterfactual thinking and depression: A meta-analysis.

Anne Gene Broomhall1, Wendy J Phillips1, Donald W Hine1

  • 1University of New England, Armidale, Australia.

Clinical Psychology Review
|May 15, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Upward counterfactual thinking, imagining better outcomes, is linked to depressive symptoms. This meta-analysis confirms a significant association, highlighting its relevance in understanding depression.

Keywords:
Counterfactual-related depressionDepressionFunctional theoryRegretUpward counterfactual thinking

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Cognitive Science
  • Mental Health Research

Background:

  • Upward counterfactual thinking involves imagining better alternatives to past events.
  • This cognitive process is hypothesized to influence emotional states, including depression.
  • Previous research has yielded mixed findings on the strength of this association.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantitatively synthesize the existing research on the association between upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms.
  • To explore potential moderators that influence the strength of this relationship.

Main Methods:

  • A meta-analysis was conducted, pooling effect sizes from multiple studies.
  • Data from 42 effect sizes (13,168 participants) were initially analyzed, expanded to 96 for moderator analyses.
  • Various statistical methods were used to assess the overall effect size and identify moderators.

Main Results:

  • A significant positive association was found between upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms (r=.26, p<.001).
  • Upward counterfactuals and regret showed similar effect strengths.
  • Effects were consistent across different situation themes and study designs (cross-sectional, longitudinal).
  • Heterogeneity was noted across sample types, assessment methods, and depression scales.

Conclusions:

  • Upward counterfactual thinking is a significant correlate of depressive symptoms.
  • The strength of the association varies by sample characteristics and measurement tools.
  • Findings support cognitive theories of depression and the functional theory of upward counterfactual thinking.