Related Experiment Videos
The transmission potential of monkeypox virus in human populations
1Department of Tropical Hygiene, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK.
Abstract:
Data on monkeypox in Zaire over the five years 1980-1984 are analysed to assess the protection imparted by past smallpox vaccination and the transmission potential of the virus in unvaccinated communities. Attack rates in individuals with and without vaccination scars indicated that smallpox vaccination (discontinued in 1980) imparted approximately 85% protection against monkeypox. It is predicted that monkeypox virus will continue to be introduced into human communities from animal sources, and that the average magnitude and duration of monkeypox epidemics will increase as vaccine-derived protection declines in the population. On the other hand, current evidence indicates that the virus is appreciably less transmissible than was smallpox, and that it will not persist in human communities, even in the total absence of vaccination. The findings thus support the recommendation of the Global Commission for the Certification of Smallpox Eradication to cease routine smallpox vaccination in monkeypox endemic areas, but to encourage continued epidemiological surveillance.
Insights
Past smallpox vaccination provided 85% protection against monkeypox. As vaccine immunity wanes, monkeypox outbreaks may increase, but the virus is unlikely to persist in human populations.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Virology
- Public Health
Background:
- Smallpox vaccination was widely implemented globally until its eradication.
- Monkeypox, a related orthopoxvirus, poses a potential public health threat, particularly in regions where smallpox vaccination has ceased.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze monkeypox epidemiology in Zaire from 1980-1984.
- To assess the protective effect of prior smallpox vaccination against monkeypox.
- To evaluate the transmission potential of monkeypox in unvaccinated populations.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of epidemiological data from Zaire (1980-1984).
- Comparison of monkeypox attack rates in individuals with and without smallpox vaccination scars.
- Modeling of virus transmission dynamics and epidemic potential.
Main Results:
- Smallpox vaccination conferred approximately 85% protection against monkeypox.
- Monkeypox virus is predicted to continue zoonotic spillover events.
- Declining population immunity from smallpox vaccination may lead to larger and longer monkeypox epidemics.
Conclusions:
- Routine smallpox vaccination is not recommended for monkeypox endemic areas.
- Continued epidemiological surveillance for monkeypox is advised.
- Monkeypox is less transmissible than smallpox and unlikely to become endemic in human populations without vaccination.