Role of physical activity in mortality prediction in elderly hospice patients

The prediction of life-expectancy in terminally ill patients is important both for medical and social reasons but it is widely recognized as being inaccurate. The aim of this study was to investigate the mortality predictors and indicators of life extension among elderly patients in a hospice service center. In order to determine the mortality predictors, we investigated the relationship between patients' cognitive status using the Korean-Mini Mental State Examination & Global Deterioration Scale (K-MMSE & GDS), the patient's physical function using the instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ADL) score, and the patient's blood component values. The subjects included 43 men and 57 women with a mean age of 82.4±8.4 years, and a mean nursing period of 11.1±12.2 months. These terminally ill patients were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. All data were collected from paper and electronic charts, and patient interviews. A simple correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationship between the variables and to satisfy the normal distribution (P<0.01). The results revealed that the time of death negatively correlated with ADL score (r=-0.273, P=0.006). However, the K-MMSE & GDS, and the values of blood component such as albumin, gamma-glutamic transpeptidase, blood urea nitrogen, and creatinine were not correlated with the time of death. Consequently, the ADL score might be an important predictor of mortality and life extension in elderly patients. Therefore, in order to improve ADL score, physical exercise and overall fitness may be potential non-pharmacologic methods useful in preventing mortality in elderly people.