Likelihood analysis of the minimal AMSB model

We perform a likelihood analysis of the minimal anomaly-mediated supersymmetry-breaking (mAMSB) model using constraints from cosmology and accelerator experiments. We find that either a wino-like or a Higgsino-like neutralino LSP, [Formula: see text], may provide the cold dark matter (DM), both with similar likelihoods. The upper limit on the DM density from Planck and other experiments enforces [Formula: see text] after the inclusion of Sommerfeld enhancement in its annihilations. If most of the cold DM density is provided by the [Formula: see text], the measured value of the Higgs mass favours a limited range of [Formula: see text] (and also for [Formula: see text] if [Formula: see text]) but the scalar mass [Formula: see text] is poorly constrained. In the wino-LSP case, [Formula: see text] is constrained to about [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text], whereas in the Higgsino-LSP case [Formula: see text] has just a lower limit [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and [Formula: see text] is constrained to [Formula: see text] in the [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) scenario. In neither case can the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, [Formula: see text], be improved significantly relative to its Standard Model (SM) value, nor do flavour measurements constrain the model significantly, and there are poor prospects for discovering supersymmetric particles at the LHC, though there are some prospects for direct DM detection. On the other hand, if the [Formula: see text] contributes only a fraction of the cold DM density, future LHC [Formula: see text]-based searches for gluinos, squarks and heavier chargino and neutralino states as well as disappearing track searches in the wino-like LSP region will be relevant, and interference effects enable [Formula: see text] to agree with the data better than in the SM in the case of wino-like DM with [Formula: see text].