Spinal cord atrophy as a primary outcome measure in phase II trials of progressive multiple sclerosis

To measure the development of spinal cord (SC) atrophy over 1 year in patients with progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) and determine the sample sizes required to demonstrate a reduction in spinal cord cross-sectional area (SC-CSA) as an outcome measure in clinical trials.

In total, 44 PMS patients (26 primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), 18 secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS)) and 29 healthy controls (HCs) were studied at baseline and 12 months. SC-CSA was measured using the three-dimensional (3D) fast field echo sequences acquired at 3T and the active surface model. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate changes in imaging measurements.

PPMS patients had shorter disease duration, lower Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and larger SC-CSA than SPMS patients. All patients together showed a significantly greater decrease in percentage SC-CSA change than HCs, which was driven by the PPMS. All patients deteriorated over 1 year, but no association was found between percentage SC-CSA change and clinical changes. The sample size per arm required to detect a 50% treatment effect over 1 year, at 80% power, was 57 for PPMS and 546 for SPMS.

SC-CSA may become an outcome measure in trials of PPMS patients, when they are at an early stage of the disease, have moderate disability and modest SC atrophy.