The problems of increasing transparency on uncertainty.

Area of Science:

• Public Health Policy
• Scientific Communication
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Regulatory bodies like the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) increasingly require scientists to disclose evidence uncertainties.
• The stated aim is to empower the public and ensure accountability in science-informed policy.
• Current transparency guidelines raise questions about defining and communicating uncertainty effectively.

Purpose of the Study:

• To critically evaluate the impact of mandated transparency of scientific uncertainty on public understanding.
• To explore the potential negative consequences of current uncertainty disclosure practices.
• To propose improvements for making uncertainty communication beneficial for both the public and scientists.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of current regulatory guidelines for scientific uncertainty disclosure.
• Discussion of practical implications and challenges in implementing transparency.
• Conceptual exploration of alternative approaches to uncertainty communication.

Main Results:

• The drive for transparency in scientific uncertainty may inadvertently mislead or confuse the public.
• Current methods of disclosing uncertainty might not serve the intended beneficiaries effectively.
• Significant challenges exist in defining and consistently communicating what constitutes scientific uncertainty.

Conclusions:

• Mandatory transparency of scientific uncertainty, as currently practiced, may be counterproductive.
• Rethinking communication strategies is crucial to ensure that uncertainty disclosure benefits, rather than harms, public understanding and trust.
• Further research and dialogue are needed to develop effective methods for worthwhile uncertainty communication.