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Simulated climate change, epidemic size, and host evolution across host-parasite populations
Stuart K J R Auld1, June Brand1
1Biological & Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK.
Global Change Biology
|May 26, 2017
Summary
Warmer temperatures and less mixing increase infectious disease epidemics in freshwater invertebrates. This reduces host genetic diversity, hindering adaptation to environmental change.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Climate change alters temperature and population dynamics, impacting infectious disease epidemics.
- Understanding these effects is crucial for predicting ecological and evolutionary consequences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the impact of increased temperature and population mixing on epidemic size and host population health.
- To investigate the effects on host genetic diversity and adaptive capacity.
Main Methods:
- Used replicate semi-natural populations of Daphnia magna (host) and Pasteuria ramosa (parasite).
- Manipulated ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux).
- Quantified epidemic size, population health, and genetic diversity.
Main Results:
- Increased temperatures led to larger epidemics.
- Population mixing reduced epidemic size but negatively impacted host populations independently of disease.
- Epidemics caused parasite-mediated selection, reducing host genetic diversity.
- Mixed populations showed increased evolution due to genetic drift.
Conclusions:
- Environmental changes like warming and altered population mixing significantly influence infectious disease dynamics.
- Reduced host genetic diversity impairs populations' ability to adapt to future environmental changes.
- These findings highlight the cascading effects of climate change on host-parasite systems and ecosystem resilience.
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