Long-term success and failure with SG is predictable by 3 months: a multivariate model using simple office markers

Area of Science:

• Bariatric Surgery
• Metabolic and Endocrine Surgery
• Sleeve Gastrectomy Outcomes

Background:

• Sleeve gastrectomy (SG) is a common bariatric procedure, yet predicting weight loss success remains challenging.
• Existing literature on predicting SG outcomes is inconclusive.
• A predictive model using readily available data could optimize patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a multivariate model for predicting 1-year excess weight loss (%EWL) after sleeve gastrectomy.
• To identify key predictors of weight loss success or failure at 3 months postoperatively.
• To enable early identification of patients requiring intervention.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective review of 613 patients from two bariatric institutions.
• Collected preoperative data including comorbidities.
• Calculated %EWL at 1, 3, and 12 months; defined %EWL < 55% at 1 year as failure.

Main Results:

• Preoperative diabetes, sleep apnea, and %EWL at 1 and 3 months significantly predicted 1-year %EWL.
• The model demonstrated a positive predictive value of 72% and negative predictive value of 91%.
• Sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 91%, respectively.

Conclusions:

• 1-year sleeve gastrectomy outcomes can be accurately predicted using preoperative factors and early postoperative weight loss velocity.
• Identifying patients at risk for poor outcomes at 3 months allows for prompt surgical or medical interventions.
• This predictive model supports personalized patient care and management strategies post-SG.