Ability to assess nest predation risk in secondary hole-nesting birds: an experimental study

Because nest predation is the major source of nesting mortality in birds, site-specific predation risk may play an important role in determining birds' ability to select nest sites that reduce predation risk. This possibility has not been adequately tested. Here we report on 5-year experiments by which we studied, independently from birds' earlier experience with specific nest boxes, both the selection and predation risk of nest sites in the common goldeneye (Bucephala clangula). New, previously unoccupied nest boxes were erected in two habitat types on three study areas. Experimentally measured predation risk in the nest boxes varied between 0 and 1.0, i.e. goldeneye females could select a nest site along a wide gradient of possible predation-risk values. We did not find a difference in predation risk between occupied and unoccupied nest boxes, nor was the order of nest box occupation associated with predation risk. A power analysis revealed that our test had reasonably high power to reject a false null hypothesis. Our results suggest that common goldeneye females likely have not evolved an ability to assess predation risk of new, previously unoccupied nest sites.