THE DIVERGENCE OF NEUTRAL QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERS AMONG PARTIALLY ISOLATED POPULATIONS

The neutral model of phenotypic evolution has yielded several simple predictions about the long-term rates of between-population divergence of polygenic traits and about the equilibrium level of within-population variance when mutation and random genetic drift are the sole evolutionary forces. These conclusions must be modified if populations are only partially isolated. A quantitative model is presented for the development of within- and between-population variance for neutral quantitative characters in pairs of populations with arbitrary effective sizes and migration rates. Both the variance in the base population and subsequent variance generated by mutation are considered, and several dynamical and equilibrium properties are shown to be adequately described by simple approximations. The resultant formulations provide some insight into the sensitivity of measures of morphological distance to gene flow, the necessity of isolation for the accumulation of variation between incipient species, and the consequences of gene flow into captive populations of endangered species.