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Updated: Mar 1, 2026

Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations
Published on: February 3, 2023
PERSPECTIVE: A CRITIQUE OF SEWALL WRIGHT'S SHIFTING BALANCE THEORY OF EVOLUTION.
Jerry A Coyne1, Nicholas H Barton2, Michael Turelli3
1Department of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Chicago, 1101 East 57th Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60637.
Sewall Wright's shifting balance theory faces significant challenges. Evidence suggests genetic drift is often unnecessary for evolution, and complex adaptations are unlikely to arise through this complex, three-phase process.
Area of Science:
- Evolutionary Biology
- Population Genetics
Background:
- Sewall Wright's shifting balance theory proposes a three-phase model for evolution.
- This theory involves genetic drift and selection acting on subdivided populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To critically evaluate the theoretical underpinnings of Wright's shifting balance theory.
- To examine empirical data from natural and laboratory settings relevant to the theory's phases.
Main Methods:
- Theoretical analysis of evolutionary mechanisms.
- Review of natural and laboratory-based empirical data on population genetics and adaptation.
Main Results:
- Phases I and II (peak shifts) can occur, but genetic drift is often not essential.
- Phase III (species-wide adaptation spread) faces significant theoretical hurdles, including gene flow barriers and assembly of complex traits.
- Empirical data and artificial selection experiments do not strongly support the shifting balance theory over simpler models like mass selection.
Conclusions:
- The shifting balance theory, particularly its third phase, presents substantial theoretical and empirical challenges.
- The complexity and difficulty in testing the role of genetic drift make it an unlikely primary driver for the evolution of complex adaptations.
- The theory is unlikely to be a major explanation for the evolution of adaptations.
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