USING PHYLOGENETIC TREES TO STUDY SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION

One tool in the study of the forces that determine species diversity is the null, or simple, model. The fit of predictions to observations, good or bad, leads to a useful paradigm or to knowledge of forces not accounted for, respectively. It is shown how simple models of speciation and extinction lead directly to predictions of the structure of phylogenetic trees. These predictions include both essential attributes of phylogenetic trees: lengths, in the form of internode distances; and topology, in the form of internode links. These models also lead directly to statistical tests which can be used to compare predictions with phylogenetic trees that are estimated from data. Two different models and eight data sets are considered. A model without species extinction consistently yielded predictions closer to observations than did a model that included extinction. It is proposed that it may be useful to think of the diversification of recently formed monophyletic groups as a random speciation process without extinction.