What Happens to High-Cost Patients? An Analysis of the Trajectories of Billed Charges Over Time

A growing literature documents the substantial burden that a small proportion of high-cost, medically complex patients impose on health care systems. However, it is not clear whether high-cost patients remain costly over time. This study looks at the monthly distribution of billed charges for a cohort of high-cost, medically complex patients enrolled in an intensive care management program in a university health care system, and finds that the billing trajectory is heterogeneous and highly nonlinear, characterized by a substantial spike in billed charges prior to identification, followed by a considerable drop prior to enrollment and a sustained drop thereafter. The conclusion is that many high-cost patients experience costly events that resolve without intensive case management. These results also suggest that interventions should target only those high-cost patients with expected continued high cost and that pre-post study designs may overstate the impact of interventions for high-cost, medically complex patients.