Incremental shuttle walk test distance and autonomic dysfunction predict survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension

To ensure effective monitoring of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), a simple, reliable assessment of exercise capacity applicable over a range of disease severity is needed. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) to correlate with disease severity, measure sensitivity to change, and predict survival in PAH.

We enrolled 418 treatment-naïve patients with PAH with baseline ISWT within 3 months of cardiac catheterization. Clinical validity and prognostic value of ISWT distance were assessed at baseline and 1 year.

ISWT distance was found to correlate at baseline with World Health Organization functional class, Borg score, and hemodynamics without a ceiling effect (all p < 0.001). Walking distance at baseline and after treatment predicted survival; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for ability of ISWT distance to predict mortality was 0.655 (95% confidence interval 0.553-0.757; p = 0.004) at baseline and 0.737 (95% confidence interval 0.643-0.827; p < 0.001) at 1 year after initiation of treatment. Change in ISWT distance also predicted survival (p = 0.04). Heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) parameters reflecting autonomic response to exercise (highest HR, change in HR, HR recovery at 1 minute >18 beats/min, highest SBP, change in SBP, and 3-minute SBP ratio) were significant predictors of survival (all p < 0.05).

In patients with PAH, the ISWT is simple to perform, allows assessment of maximal exercise capacity, is sensitive to treatment effect, predicts outcome, and has no ceiling effect. Also, measures of autonomic function made post-exercise predict survival in PAH.