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Updated: Mar 1, 2026

A Machine Learning Approach to Design an Efficient Selective Screening of Mild Cognitive Impairment
Published on: January 11, 2020
Framingham Risk Score and the Risk of Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia
Giovanna Viticchi1, Lorenzo Falsetti2, Laura Buratti1
1Neurological Clinic, Marche Polytechnic University, Ancona, Italy.
Background:
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often represents the clinical manifestation of cognitive deterioration preceding Alzheimer's disease (AD). Currently, there are no reliable approaches for an objective evaluation of the risk of developing AD in MCI patients.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to verify whether the Framingham cardiovascular risk profile (FCRP) could be useful to identify patients at the highest risk of conversion from MCI to AD.
Methods:
Patients with amnestic MCI (aMCI) were carefully investigated to assess their vascular risk profile. They were also submitted to a comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The FCRP was calculated for each patient and the apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype was determined from peripheral blood cells. The main outcome was defined as a conversion to AD within 24 months after inclusion.
Results:
385 consecutive aMCI subjects were included. Age, FCRP, and vascular age showed a fairly predictive value on conversion to AD. Selecting the subpopulation of ApoE ɛ4 carriers, we observed that FCRP had an increased performance in predicting the conversion. The rate of conversion increased from 12.5% in the FCRP low-risk group to 43.2% in the high-risk group (p < 0.0001). ApoE ɛ4 carriers had a 3.7-times increased probability of conversion with respect to the other subjects (p < 0.0001).
Conclusions:
FCRP assessment could be considered a reliable approach to predict conversion to AD in aMCI subjects. The presence of ApoE ɛ4 increases significantly the risk of conversion. These data confirm the narrow relationship between genetic and vascular risk factors in influencing the evolution of cognitive impairment.
Insights
The Framingham cardiovascular risk profile (FCRP) can help predict Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients. Combining FCRP with apolipoprotein E (ApoE) ɛ4 carrier status further improves AD risk prediction.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Genetics
- Cardiovascular Medicine
Background:
- Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often precedes Alzheimer's disease (AD).
- Objective risk assessment for AD conversion in MCI patients is currently limited.
- Understanding risk factors is crucial for early intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the Framingham cardiovascular risk profile (FCRP) for predicting AD conversion in MCI patients.
- To assess if FCRP improves risk prediction in combination with genetic factors.
Main Methods:
- Included 385 patients with amnestic MCI (aMCI).
- Assessed vascular risk profiles and calculated FCRP.
- Determined apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype.
- Monitored conversion to AD within 24 months.
Main Results:
- Age, FCRP, and vascular age showed predictive value for AD conversion.
- FCRP performance improved in predicting conversion among ApoE ɛ4 carriers.
- Conversion rates were 12.5% in low-risk and 43.2% in high-risk FCRP groups (p < 0.0001).
- ApoE ɛ4 carriers had a 3.7-fold increased probability of conversion (p < 0.0001).
Conclusions:
- FCRP is a reliable tool for predicting AD conversion in aMCI subjects.
- ApoE ɛ4 status significantly increases the risk of conversion.
- Vascular and genetic factors interact to influence cognitive decline progression.
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