Nomogram predicts survival benefit from preoperative radiotherapy for non-metastatic breast cancer: A SEER-based...

To estimate survival in non-metastatic breast cancer patients who failed to achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) more effectively, we combined the clinicpathological characteristics after preoperative radiation therapy (pRT) and established a novel nomogram.

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we identified 2,545 non-metastatic breast cancer patients who underwent pRT between 1998 and 2013. Based on the registries of patients, the primary cohort divided into training set (n = 1,692) and validation set (n = 853). Nomograms were established by training set and validated by validation set.

According to the multivariate analysis of training set, nomogram which combined age at diagnosed, marital status, location, grade, ER status, yp-T status, yp-N status and whether received breast conservation surgery (BCS) was developed. Calibration plots of the nomograms showed that the probability of DSS corresponded to actual observation closely. The C-index was 0.78 in validation set, which was significantly higher than that of yp-TNM staging system (0.75, p = 0.004).

The proposed nomogram resulted in more-reliable DSS prediction for non-metastatic breast cancer patients in general population, it would be helpful in individualized survival prediction and better treatment allocation after pRT.