Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20^th and 21^st century

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20^th century and projections during the 21^st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20^th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21^st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21^st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.