Forecasting Financial Resources for Future Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury Care Using Simulation Modeling

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Gerontology
• Rehabilitation Medicine

Background:

• Traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) survivors require extensive, lifelong healthcare.
• An aging population presents new challenges for managing tSCI care.
• Forecasting future healthcare needs is essential for resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast changes in healthcare financial resources and patient outcomes for tSCI survivors between 2012 and 2032.
• To model the impact of demographic shifts on tSCI care demands.
• To inform healthcare planning for an aging tSCI population.

Main Methods:

• Simulation modeling using data from Canadian acute and rehabilitation care facilities.
• Prediction of future population and tSCI incidence using Statistics Canada and CIHI data.
• Validation of projected 2012 tSCI incidence with the Rick Hansen SCI Registry.

Main Results:

• By 2032, the median age of tSCI survivors is projected to be 57, with 46% of injuries in individuals 61 and older.
• Acute and rehabilitation admissions are projected to increase by 31% and 25%, respectively.
• Total care costs are expected to rise by 54%, with rest-of-life costs increasing by 37% (CAD $16.4 million additional).

Conclusions:

• The aging demographic of tSCI survivors will significantly increase healthcare resource demand and costs.
• Accurate projections are vital for healthcare decision-makers planning tSCI care.
• Proactive planning is necessary to meet the evolving needs of the tSCI population.