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Updated: Feb 28, 2026

A Video Surveillance System to Monitor Breeding Colonies of Common Terns Sterna Hirundo
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Dealing with uncertainty when using a surveillance system.

Gaëtan Texier1, Liliane Pellegrin2, Claire Vignal3

  • 1Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, BP 1274, Yaoundé, Cameroon; UMR 912/SESSTIM - INSERM/IRD/Aix-Marseille University/Faculty of Medicine, 27 Bd Jean Moulin, 13385 Marseille, France.

International Journal of Medical Informatics
|June 11, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Epidemiologists use reduction and assumption strategies to manage uncertainty during outbreak detection. Early warning surveillance systems are crucial for informing these decisions and improving public health responses.

Keywords:
Decision support systemDisease surveillance systemExpert decision makingOutbreakUncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Epidemiologists confirm outbreaks via "situation diagnosis," validating alarms into alerts and proposing countermeasures.
  • Uncertainty is inherent in this process, influencing expert decision-making and response strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate how uncertainty manifests during outbreak situation diagnosis.
  • Analyze expert strategies for managing uncertainty with early warning systems.

Main Methods:

  • Experiment using a simulation platform with natural and intentional outbreak scenarios.
  • Task analysis of expert activities and categorization using RAWFS heuristics (Reduction, Assumption, Weighing, Forestalling, Suppression).

Main Results:

  • Characterized practice-imposed and situation-imposed uncertainty.
  • Identified predominance of reduction (66.4%) and assumption-based reasoning strategies.
  • Observed primary use of phones (89%) and surveillance systems (69%) for coping with uncertainty, mainly via reduction.

Conclusions:

  • Surveillance systems require features that reduce user uncertainty and support decision-making.
  • Proposed flow diagram and design changes can enhance surveillance system effectiveness in outbreak management.