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From information processing to decisions: Formalizing and comparing psychologically plausible choice models.

Daniel W Heck1, Benjamin E Hilbig2, Morten Moshagen3

  • 1School of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.

Cognitive Psychology
|June 12, 2017
PubMed
Summary

This study tested decision strategies, including a probabilistic take-the-best (TTB) heuristic. Most participants used weighted-additive strategies, not the new TTB model, for probabilistic inferences.

Keywords:
Bayes factorJudgment and decision makingMinimum description lengthModel selectionTake-the-best

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Decision science
  • Behavioral economics

Background:

  • Decision strategies explain information integration for probabilistic inferences.
  • Sophisticated methods exist to identify decision strategies.
  • Psychologically plausible models are needed for accurate decision behavior analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test psychologically plausible decision models, including a probabilistic take-the-best (TTB) heuristic.
  • To compare deterministic and probabilistic TTB versions within a statistical framework.
  • To determine which decision strategy best explains observed behavior in probabilistic inferences.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a probabilistic version of the take-the-best (TTB) heuristic.
  • Utilized model selection (minimum description length, Bayes factor) for strategy comparison.
  • Conducted an experiment on inferences from given information.

Main Results:

  • Only 3 out of 104 participants were best described by the probabilistic TTB heuristic.
  • Most participants utilized the weighted-additive strategy.
  • The weighted-additive strategy approximates rational decision-making by integrating all available information.

Conclusions:

  • The probabilistic TTB heuristic is less frequently used than previously assumed.
  • Weighted-additive strategies are dominant in probabilistic inference tasks.
  • Further research is needed to understand the prevalence and application of different decision strategies.