Spatiotemporal trends in teen birth rates in the USA, 2003-2012

The objective of this analysis was to explore temporal and spatial variation in teen birth rates TBRs across counties in the USA, from 2003 to 2012, by using hierarchical Bayesian models. Prior examination of spatiotemporal variation in TBRs has been limited by the reliance on large-scale geographies such as states, because of the potential instability in TBRs at smaller geographical scales such as counties. We implemented hierarchical Bayesian models with space-time interaction terms and spatially structured and unstructured random effects to produce smoothed county level TBR estimates, allowing for examination of spatiotemporal patterns and trends in TBRs at a smaller geographic scale across the USA. The results may help to highlight US counties where TBRs are higher or lower and to inform efforts to reduce birth rates to adolescents in the USA further.