Evacuation decision-making : Building a model to account for risk-taking preference

Area of Science:

• Emergency management
• Coastal resilience
• Disaster preparedness

Background:

• Large-scale hurricane evacuations present significant challenges for coastal emergency managers.
• Evacuations are costly, disruptive, and susceptible to their own hazards.
• Factors like high-risk populations, insufficient evacuation routes, and limited shelter capacity exacerbate these difficulties.

Purpose of the Study:

• To define and document the evacuation decision-making process for hurricanes.
• To analyze the complexities faced by emergency managers in Lee County, Florida.

Main Methods:

• Qualitative documentation of the evacuation decision-making process.
• Analysis of challenges in Lee County, Southwest Florida.

Main Results:

• The decision to order a hurricane evacuation is highly stressful.
• Evacuation clearance times are significantly impacted by population density, route limitations, and shelter availability.
• Forecast errors and uncertainty add further complexity to the decision-making process.

Conclusions:

• Understanding the intricacies of the evacuation decision-making process is crucial for effective coastal emergency management.
• Addressing challenges such as population density and infrastructure limitations is vital for improving hurricane evacuation strategies.