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A weight of evidence framework for environmental assessments: Inferring quantities.
Glenn Suter1, Susan Cormier1, Mace Barron2
1US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Cincinnati, Ohio.
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management
|June 15, 2017
Summary
The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) offers a weight-of-evidence (WoE) framework to derive accurate quantitative environmental values from multiple data sources. This process enhances transparency and reliability in environmental assessments.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Risk Assessment
- Data Analysis
Background:
- Environmental assessments often require quantitative parameters like degradation rates or criterion values.
- Deriving these values typically involves using multiple estimates from various data sets or models.
- Existing methods may lack transparency or optimal accuracy when dealing with diverse quantitative inputs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a generally applicable framework for a weight-of-evidence (WoE) process.
- To guide the derivation of quantitative values from multiple estimates in environmental assessments.
- To enhance the accuracy and transparency of quantitative environmental parameter generation.
Main Methods:
- Developing a structured framework for weighing evidence from multiple quantitative estimates.
- Outlining steps for evaluating evidence, merging estimates, or selecting the best estimate.
- Establishing methods to weight results and determine confidence in the final numerical value.
Main Results:
- The proposed WoE framework provides a systematic approach to quantitative value derivation.
- Utilizing the framework can increase the accuracy of quantitative results compared to single-estimate methods.
- The process offers greater transparency than ad hoc evidence weighing.
Conclusions:
- The USEPA's WoE framework offers a robust methodology for environmental assessments.
- This approach improves the reliability and transparency of quantitative environmental parameter estimation.
- The framework is applicable when multiple data sets or model outputs are available.
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