Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecology
• Sociology

Background:

• Land use and land cover (LULC) patterns result from complex human-ecological interactions, creating diverse cultural landscapes that provide ecosystem services.
• Evaluating land use development is crucial for human well-being, but managing interconnected social-ecological systems presents challenges.
• Social-ecological resilience offers a framework to understand these complex, multi-scale interlinkages across disciplines.

Purpose of the Study:

• To characterize the social-ecological system and identify key drivers influencing farmer decisions in the Stubai Valley, Austria.
• To develop future scenarios for farming conditions and assess their impact on land use and land cover changes.
• To provide a basis for community development recommendations through spatially explicit results.

Main Methods:

• Characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers affecting farmer management decisions.
• Development of three future scenarios: 'trend', 'positive', and 'negative' farming conditions.
• Spatial scenario analysis integrating social and ecological methods with local stakeholder knowledge.

Main Results:

• Pluri-activity (diverse income sources) in 'trend' and 'positive' scenarios maintained LULC and enhanced farming system resilience.
• In the 'negative' scenario, reduced subsidies and altered consumer behavior were key drivers, causing significant grassland abandonment, especially in sub-alpine areas.
• The integrated approach yielded detailed, spatially explicit results for land use change.

Conclusions:

• Social-ecological resilience is vital for managing complex land use dynamics.
• Farming diversification is a key strategy for enhancing resilience and maintaining ecosystem services.
• Policy and community development must consider socio-economic drivers and their spatial impacts on LULC.