Prognostic Significance of a Negative Confirmatory Biopsy on Reclassification Among Men on Active Surveillance

To examine the association between absence of disease on confirmatory biopsy and risk of pathologic reclassification in men on active surveillance (AS).

Men with grade groups 1 and 2 disease on AS between 2002 and 2015 were identified who received a confirmatory biopsy within 1 year of diagnosis and ≥3 biopsies overall. The primary outcomes were pathologic reclassification by grade (any increase in primary Gleason pattern or Gleason score) or volume (>33% of sampled cores involved or increase in the number of cores with >50% involvement). The effect of a negative confirmatory biopsy survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazards modeling.

Out of 635 men, 224 met inclusion criteria (median follow-up: 55.8 months). A total of 111 men (49.6%) had a negative confirmatory biopsy. Decreased grade reclassification (69.7% vs 83.9%; P = .01) and volume reclassification (66.3% vs 87.4%; P = .004) was seen at 5 years for men with a negative confirmatory biopsy compared with those with a positive biopsy. On adjusted analysis, a negative confirmatory biopsy was associated with a decreased risk of grade reclassification (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.94; P = .03) and volume reclassification (hazard ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.61; P = .0006) at a median of 4.7 years.

Absence of cancer on the confirmatory biopsy is associated with a significant decrease in rate of grade and volume reclassification among men on AS. This information may be used to better counsel men on AS.