A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Research
• Sustainability Studies

Background:

• Human consumption drives climate change, but the 'tragedy of the commons' hinders individual action on greenhouse gas emissions.
• The Paris Agreement (2015) mandates limiting global warming to well below 2°C, requiring significant emission reductions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze climate change from a human-scale perspective by defining personal carbon dioxide (CO2) emission quotas.
• To link individual emission limits with global carbon budgets and planetary warming targets.

Main Methods:

• Calculated a global carbon budget aligned with the Paris Agreement's 'well below 2°C' and 2°C targets.
• Applied an equal per capita fairness approach to establish a personal CO2 emission quota.
• Modeled emission scenarios with constant per capita emissions and smooth transitions to zero emissions.

Main Results:

• A personal CO2 quota of 5.0 tons per year is proposed as a representative value for equitable emissions.
• Without mitigation, this quota would lead to exceeding the 'well below 2°C' budget by 2030 and the 2°C budget by 2050.
• Realistic transition scenarios suggest these budgets will be exhausted by 2040 ('well below 2°C') and 2080 (2°C).

Conclusions:

• Establishing personal CO2 emission boundaries is crucial for achieving climate targets.
• This framework promotes individual responsibility and equity in addressing global warming.
• The findings provide a clear timeframe for eliminating CO2 emissions to meet climate goals.