[Risk factors for central neck lymph node metastases of papillary thyroid carcinoma]

Objective: To investigate the impact factors for central neck lymph node metastases(CLNM) of papillary thyroid carcinoma(PTC). Methods: A total of 498 patients with PTC who underwent total or hemi-thyroidectomy plus central neck lymph node dissection between January 2014 and July 2016 were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify clinicopathological characteristics, thyroid function parameters and US findings that associated with CLNM of PTC. A nomogram was developed to predict the probability of CLNM. The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) was used to estimate the efficiency of the nomogram. Results: Among 498 patients, 284 patients were affected by CNLM. The sensitivity and specificity of US in predicting PTC metastasis in the central neck were 31.3% and 88.3%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that gender, age, number and size of suspicious malignant nodules in thyroid, and suspicious lymph node metastasis detected by ultrasonography were independently correlated with CLNM. The ROC showed that the AUC was 0.748, with sensitivity of 80.8%, and specificity of 59.8%. Conclusions: Gender, age, number and size of suspicious malignant nodules in thyroid, suspicious lymph node metastasis were predictive factors for CLNM in patients with PTC. The nomogram developed based on related factors with CLNM is more sensitive than sonographic central neck lymph node features in predicting the probability of CLNM.