Caries prediction from initial measurements in clinical trial subjects

The correlation between future caries activity and predictor variables of initial caries experience and surfaces at risk was examined in control-group adolescents in two clinical trials conducted over three years. By modifying and combining the predictors in accordance with clinical observation, 25% of the variance of the DMFS increment was explained compared with the 13% attributable to initial DMFS alone. Seventy percent of the variability in DMFS experience at 14 to 15 years of age was accounted for by caries experience two years earlier.