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Updated: Feb 27, 2026
Untargeted Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry-Based Metabolomics Analysis of Wheat Grain
Published on: March 13, 2020
A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis
1First and seventeenth authors: AGIR, Université de Toulouse, INRA, INPT, INP-EI PURPAN, Castanet-Tolosan, France; second and third authors: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; fourth author: NIBIO, Plant Health and Plant Protection Division, N-1430 Ås, Norway; fifth author: Istituto di Entomologia e Patologia Vegetale, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Piacenza, Italy; sixth author: Center for Research in Plant Protection, School of Agronomy, University of Costa Rica, San Pedro Montes de Oca, Costa Rica; seventh author: Embrapa Trigo, Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil; eighth author: Departamento de Fitopatologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG, Brazil; ninth author: G. B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar, Uttaranchal, India; tenth and eleventh author: Department of Plant Pathology, Ohio State University, Wooster 44691; twelfth author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of California, Davis, CA; thirteenth author: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico D.F., Mexico; fourteenth and sixteenth authors: EcoSys, INRA, AgroParisTech, University of Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France; and fifteenth author: Bioger, INRA, AgroParisTech, Univ Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France.
Scenario analysis predicts increased global wheat disease risk by 2050. Different agrosystems and pathogen groups show varied impacts from climate change and agricultural practices.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Plant Pathology
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Complex agricultural systems often involve diverse, qualitative data, making traditional analysis challenging.
- Understanding future global wheat health requires synthesizing knowledge on various interacting global change factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To design and apply a framework for scenario analysis to global wheat health.
- To project potential changes in wheat pathogen risk from today to 2050.
Main Methods:
- Developed a scenario analysis framework involving settings, change scenarios, and outcome analysis.
- Considered three idealized wheat agrosystems and global change components (climate, fertilizers, tillage, rotation, pesticides, resistance).
- Assessed risk probabilities (epidemics) and magnitudes (crop losses) for six wheat pathogen functional groups.
Main Results:
- Scenario analysis indicates an overall increase in risk probabilities and magnitudes for wheat diseases across the studied agrosystems.
- The impact of global changes on wheat health varies significantly depending on the specific agrosystem and pathogen functional group.
- Identified differential effects of global changes on the epidemiology and crop loss potential of Fusarium head blight, biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses.
Conclusions:
- Scenario analysis is effective for qualitative assessment of evolving plant pathosystems under global change.
- The framework provides a basis for quantitative simulation modeling in plant disease epidemiology.
- Future global changes are projected to increase wheat disease risks, necessitating adaptive management strategies.
