Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Climate Science

Background:

• Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are crucial for identifying species at risk.
• A wide array of CCVA methodologies exist, complicating selection for conservation practitioners and policymakers.
• Lack of standardization hinders consistent identification of climate-threatened species.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the consistency of species risk categorization across different CCVA methodologies.
• To determine which CCVA methodologies effectively identify climate-threatened species.
• To validate CCVA performance using historical and contemporary species distribution data.

Main Methods:

• Comparison of 12 distinct climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies.
• Application of methodologies to both real and simulated species datasets.
• Validation using historical distribution data of British birds and butterflies to predict recent trends.

Main Results:

• Significant inconsistencies were found in species risk categorization among the evaluated CCVA methods.
• No single methodology consistently assigned species to the same risk categories.
• Methods integrating historical trend data demonstrated superior performance in predicting subsequent species distribution changes.

Conclusions:

• Climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies are not interchangeable due to poor inter-method agreement.
• Trend-based CCVA approaches appear more reliable for predicting species distribution shifts than trait-based methods alone.
• Further validation is necessary as more long-term ecological data become available.