Host shift and cospeciation rate estimation from co-phylogenies.

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Parasitology
• Network analysis

Background:

• Host shifts and cospeciation can create similar phylogenetic patterns, making it difficult to distinguish their evolutionary impacts.
• Understanding these processes is crucial for predicting the emergence of novel infectious diseases.

Discussion:

• A novel framework combining network analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) was developed to quantify host shift and cospeciation rates.
• This method allows for the estimation of the time until the next host shift or cospeciation event.

Key Insights:

• The framework reliably estimates host shift and cospeciation rates in host-parasite systems.
• Host shifts significantly influenced the evolution of avian haemosporidian parasites.
• Cospeciation played a more dominant role than host shifts in the evolution of pocket gophers and their chewing lice.

Outlook:

• This new method offers a promising approach for predicting the rates of host shifts.
• Accurate prediction of host shift rates can enhance our ability to anticipate and manage the emergence of novel infectious diseases.