Assessment of circulating copy number variant detection for cancer screening

Current high-sensitivity cancer screening methods, largely utilizing correlative biomarkers, suffer from false positive rates that lead to unnecessary medical procedures and debatable public health benefit overall. Detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), a causal biomarker, has the potential to revolutionize cancer screening. Thus far, the majority of ctDNA studies have focused on detection of tumor-specific point mutations after cancer diagnosis for the purpose of post-treatment surveillance. However, ctDNA point mutation detection methods developed to date likely lack either the scope or analytical sensitivity necessary to be useful for cancer screening, due to the low (<1%) ctDNA fraction derived from early stage tumors. On the other hand, tumor-derived copy number variant (CNV) detection is hypothetically a superior means of ctDNA-based cancer screening for many tumor types, given that, relative to point mutations, each individual tumor CNV contributes a much larger number of ctDNA fragments to the overall pool of circulating free DNA (cfDNA). A small number of studies have demonstrated the potential of ctDNA CNV-based screening in select cancer types. Here we perform an in silico assessment of the potential for ctDNA CNV-based cancer screening across many common cancers, and suggest ctDNA CNV detection shows promise as a broad cancer screening methodology.