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Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus
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Zika virus dynamics: When does sexual transmission matter?
Ondrej Maxian1, Anna Neufeld2, Emma J Talis3
1Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Epidemics
|July 10, 2017
Summary
Zika virus (ZIKV) primarily spreads through mosquito vectors, with sexual transmission playing a minor role in the current epidemic. Mathematical modeling revealed reporting bias, not intrinsic differences, explains higher female infection numbers.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Virology
Background:
- Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in South America linked to microcephaly.
- ZIKV transmission occurs via vectors and sexual contact, with relative contributions unclear.
- Observed disparity in reported ZIKV infections between males and females.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model ZIKV transmission dynamics.
- To determine drivers of observed epidemic patterns.
- To assess the role of sexual transmission and reporting bias.
Main Methods:
- Developed a mathematical model for ZIKV transmission.
- Analyzed transmission routes and epidemic patterns.
- Evaluated differences in male and female infection rates.
Main Results:
- Sexual transmission contributes 4.8% to the basic reproductive number (R 0).
- Vector transmission is the primary driver of the ZIKV epidemic.
- A minor, statistically significant difference in mean cases between males and females was found, but reporting bias likely explains higher female case numbers.
Conclusions:
- Vector-borne transmission is the main driver of the ZIKV epidemic.
- Sexual transmission is insufficient to sustain outbreaks but can initiate epidemics in certain conditions.
- Reporting bias significantly influences observed sex-based differences in ZIKV cases.
