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Related Concept Videos

Uncertainty: Overview00:59

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In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
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The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error00:59

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An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
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Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 27, 2026

Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
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The Need for Uncertainty: A Case for Prognostic Silence.

Paul K Han

    Perspectives in Biology and Medicine
    |July 11, 2017
    PubMed
    Summary

    Prognostic certainty in end-of-life care is often unattainable and may not be what dying patients need. Embracing prognostic uncertainty can foster meaning and support patients, families, and clinicians.

    Area of Science:

    • Medical Ethics
    • Palliative Care
    • Existential Psychology

    Background:

    • Prognostic disclosure is recommended in end-of-life care but often met with resistance from patients and physicians, leading to a "collusion of silence."
    • Ethical debates typically focus on the benefits/harms of disclosure or patient acceptance, overlooking the assumption that certainty is desired.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To question the assumption that dying persons need prognostic certainty.
    • To explore the potential value of prognostic uncertainty in end-of-life care.

    Main Methods:

    • Philosophical essay.
    • Reflection on personal experience of a father's death.

    Main Results:

    • Prognostic certainty is often unattainable and existentially irrelevant for many dying individuals.

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  • Prognostic uncertainty can be a more significant need, allowing for openness to finding meaning.

    • Conclusions:

    • Respecting the existential need for uncertainty can justify prognostic silence.
    • Prognostic uncertainty enables dying persons, their loved ones, and clinicians to find new meaning at the end of life.