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Testing for voter rigging in small polling stations.

Raúl Jimenez1, Manuel Hidalgo2, Peter Klimek3,4

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a statistical test to detect voter rigging, where large numbers of voters are coerced. Small polling stations showed significant anomalies, particularly in Venezuela, indicating manipulation beyond random variation.

Keywords:
Venezuelan politicselection forensicselection statisticselectoral fraud

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Statistics
  • Electoral Studies

Background:

  • Many countries blend democratic structures with authoritarian tactics.
  • Ruling elites may employ manipulation, including voter rigging, to control election results.
  • Voter rigging involves coercing and mobilizing voters, distinct from ballot stuffing.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a statistical test to quantify voter rigging in elections.
  • To investigate the hypothesis that smaller polling stations are more vulnerable to voter rigging.
  • To enable third parties to identify electoral anomalies indicative of voter rigging.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a statistical test to compare voting behavior in small polling stations with neighboring ones.
  • Analysis of geographic heterogeneities in vote preferences.
  • Comparative analysis of 21 elections across 10 countries.

Main Results:

  • Significant statistical anomalies consistent with voter rigging were found in Russia (2007-2011), Venezuela (2006-2013), and Uganda (2011).
  • Small polling stations exhibited voting patterns suggestive of rigging.
  • In Venezuela's 2013 presidential election, small polling stations critically influenced the outcome.

Conclusions:

  • The statistical method can detect electoral irregularities beyond simple random variation.
  • Evidence suggests voter rigging is a significant issue in certain democratic-authoritarian hybrid regimes.
  • The findings highlight the vulnerability of electoral processes in specific contexts, especially in smaller polling stations.