Next generation crop models: A modular approach to model early vegetative and reproductive development of the common...

The next generation of gene-based crop models offers the potential of predicting crop vegetative and reproductive development based on genotype and weather data as inputs. Here, we illustrate an approach for developing a dynamic modular gene-based model to simulate changes in main stem node numbers, time to first anthesis, and final node number on the main stem of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). In the modules, these crop characteristics are functions of relevant genes (quantitative trait loci (QTL)), the environment (E), and QTL × E interactions. The model was based on data from 187 recombinant inbred (RI) genotypes and the two parents grown at five sites (Citra, FL; Palmira, Colombia; Popayan, Colombia; Isabela Puerto Rico; and Prosper, North Dakota). The model consists of three dynamic QTL effect models for node addition rate (NAR, No. d^- 1), daily rate of progress from emergence toward flowering (RF), and daily maximum main stem node number (MSNODmax), that were integrated to simulate main stem node number vs. time, and date of first flower using daily time steps. Model evaluation with genotypes not used in model development showed reliable predictions across all sites for time to first anthesis (R² = 0.75) and main stem node numbers during the linear phase of node addition (R² = 0.93), while prediction of the final main stem node number was less reliable (R² = 0.27). The use of mixed-effects models to analyze multi-environment data from a wide range of genotypes holds considerable promise for assisting development of dynamic QTL effect models capable of simulating vegetative and reproductive development.